Executive Summary
Highlights from the August 2021 Cotton This Month include:
- Global production is expected to increase by 3% to 25 million tonnes in 2021/22
- Consumption posted a 12.4% increase to 25.5 million tonnes in 2020/21, with a similar performance expected in 2021/22
- Concerns remain due to Covid-19's stubbornness, with threats from factory closings and logistical problems looming in Bangladesh and Vietnam
Expected revival in world cotton production in 2021/22 season
The coronavirus might have won the battle in 2021/21, driving down global cotton production to 24.2 million tonnes, a decline of 7% from the season before. But the industry has responded well and production is expected to rise by 3% in 2021/22 to reach 25 million tonnes.
The increase will be led by:
- The USA, which is projected to reach 3.8 million tonnes, up 22% from the season before,
- India, whose production is expected to remain high in 2021/22 (5.9 million tonnes), and
- Brazil, which hasn't publicly announced its production area and forecasts yet because sowing won't begin until December but still should reach about 2.3 million tonnes.
On the bright side, global cotton consumption and trade have seen a welcome recovery in the 2020/21 season, with consumption increasing by 12.4% to reach 25.5 million tonnes, with a similar trajectory projected for 2021/22. But Covid-19 has proven itself to be very stubborn; recent reports from Bangladesh and Vietnam indicates that Covid infections are on the rise, so lockdown-induced factory closures and shipping problems are still major threats, leaving manufacturers scrambling to fill their orders.
The Secretariat’s current price forecast of the season-average A index for 2021/22 ranges from 73 cents to 125 cents, with a midpoint at 95.43 cents per pound.
Cotton This Month is published at the beginning of the month with the Cotton Update published mid-month. The Cotton Update, which is included in the Cotton This Month subscription, is a mid-month report with updated information on supply/demand estimates and prices. The next Cotton Update will be released on 16 August 2021. The next Cotton This Month will be released on 1 September 2021.