Omicron has ushered in the era of "life-saving mass contamination", bringing in its wake new, more "responsible" consumption patterns.
The impact on our market can be considerable. Today, all the major brands are turning to alternative modes of consumption, recyclable, organic or even vegan, not to mention second-hand. Fast fashion" models are no longer the trend. We will have to get used to wearing our clothes for longer. This paradigm shift should lead us to a new revolution. The time of the race for yields per hectare will soon be over, and organic and fair trade will have to become the norm, posing at the same time the far more crucial problem of water use. Indeed, it will take more and more water to produce a kilo of cotton. Anecdotal evidence suggests that this is a fundamental issue for future generations. Although this movement is underway, the focus today is still on the market conditions, which are equally remarkable:
- The ICE is going from record to record against a backdrop of speculation and, above all, a new trap that is closing in on the spinners. Indeed, sales in "on call prices " have started to increase dangerously again. As for the December 2021 deadline, spinners are reluctant to fix the price of their purchases and are letting the position swell dangerously. Speculators have once again taken control of the market to push it towards its highs. The liquidation of the March 2022 maturity is likely to be painful as prices will continue to rise. However, all the signals are green for the spinning mills, which are able to maintain comfortable margins at current levels.
- - One of the explanations lies in the freight crisis which prevents purchased goods from being shipped. The risk for the spinning mill would be to fix without being able to ship and to receive at full price the goods thus delayed in a market which would have collapsed. A price to be fixed is not a guarantee to pay the lowest price but the right price at a certain time.
- - The structure of the New York market continues to be of concern as the price gap between new and old crop continues to widen. It is difficult to predict when the price will return to normal. However, producers are in the process of supplying their input needs at prices almost three times higher than last year. At the same time, cotton for the new crop is finding takers at more reasonable prices than for the current crop. This may be a sign that the freight market is beginning to normalize.
- - On the physical market, the situation remains tense due to persistent difficulties in shipping to origins, even if a timid start to recovery seems to be underway. However, supply tensions persist:
- - Pakistan and Bangladesh are very present in the purchase of cotton for close shipment, agreeing to pay a premium for immediately available cotton.
- - India, worried by the slowdown in deliveries on the domestic market and by the qualities still to be sold, is turning to imported cotton
- - China fears that the current climatic conditions will have a lasting impact on its cotton production.
- - The political situation in Mali and Burkina Faso, two of the largest cotton-producing countries in Africa, continues to worry exporters.
The foreign exchange market is not left out, with the US dollar strengthening against the main currencies as key interest rates are raised. We will also have to remain vigilant on the stock markets where the fear of a massive correction in the wake of crypto-currencies is increasingly feared. For the time being, the cotton market should be spared and continue its progression.
Source: Mambo