No one can predict the destiny of the war in Ukraine, from Azincourt to Alesia, including a Pyrrhic victory, anything is possible, even Armageddon. In the face of unbearable images, it is also necessary to describe the war that is raging on the world economy.
Inflation is not weakening and continues to worry states whose room for manoeuvre is restricted by the geopolitical situation. The rise in oil prices has been temporarily contained by the release of strategic stocks in the United States. But the gas situation remains intractable and should continue to fuel the rise in prices. Property prices, after having held up particularly well during the COVID, seem to be stagnating or even falling back. The rise in interest rates should sound the death knell for any immediate recovery in this sector.
Prices of all agricultural commodities are rising with no lasting break in sight. Fickle weather conditions are causing fears of the worst, especially for food crops such as grains and oilseeds.
The report on projected planted area in America has left many observers wary. We will have to wait for the next report before the current crisis is taken into account. The war will have an effect on harvest intentions for the next season.
Although fertilizers have been removed from the list of internationally sanctioned products, the effects on prices are slow to be felt. In any case, shipping difficulties and the number of ships blocked in the Black Sea will continue to weigh on prices after the conflict.
The freight crisis continues to hamper international trade, which is now regulated by the ability to find containers.
In this environment the cotton market continues to perform well on stable fundamentals:
- Strong demand in India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Vietnam to name but a few.
- There is no doubt that the US will meet USDA sales projections but will be late in shipping the quantities sold.
- The situation in Texas continues to be a concern even though there is still time before planting.
- Planted area is expected to decline in favor of food crops.
- The ICE is expected to continue to have a turbulent few weeks. Speculation will take advantage of the position of contracts to be fixed on this crop but also of the low level of the December 2022 maturity.
On the currency front, a further strengthening of the US dollar against all currencies is expected.
In such a context, some want to believe that the 2011 levels are within reach (over $2/Lb) but we must keep in mind that our market is in no way strategic in the troubled times that are brewing. A return to an equilibrium level for the new crop around 105 USC/Lb is not to be overlooked either.
Source: Mambo