The jolts in all commodity futures markets are so brutal that they make you dizzy. Cotton is no exception to the rule.
In a business climate that is deteriorating day by day, the uncertainties are causing great nervousness among all operators. The expiry of the July 2022 and its share of unknowns is still weighing on a market in search of direction.
The situation in the Indian subcontinent, where the heat wave continues to wreak havoc, is of concern to all observers, as these temperatures have already largely mortgaged the precious mango crop by almost a third and are undoubtedly preparing to hit the cotton crop as well. In the current weather conditions, it is difficult to envisage the 35 million bales anticipated by the USDA.
The same is true in Pakistan, where a reduction in production is not in doubt either.
Despite the recent rains in Texas, it is still too early to say what exact impact the drought will have in this region that produces more than 40% of US cotton.
The situation is also worrying in the southern hemisphere, where Argentine and Brazilian crops are expected to be down.
In Africa, while sowing has begun, it is above all the lack of fertilizer that worries the "cotton farmers". The AfDB's decision to finance up to 500,000 tons of fertilizer to meet the agricultural challenge seems too late. Indeed, fertiliser deliveries at the end of the winter season do not augur well for yields. Despite the increase in the price guaranteed to cotton growers, food production remains at the heart of the concerns of all governments.
On the other hand, consumption is not declining, and demand for yarn remains strong on all markets despite the looming recession.
Needless to say, the WASDE report in June will be awaited, as the May report left the industry circumspect.
Despite the coming recession, the cotton picture is reasonably optimistic, as the choice between cash crops and food crops favours the latter.
Source: Mambo Commodoties