The key concept to grasp this autumn is that of 'cognitive dissonance'.
War is raging in Europe, but we go on holiday convinced that the worst is yet to come.
Inflation continues to rise but Western economies are experiencing the full employment that has been missing for decades.
Interest rates are being raised without budget tightening.
The world is experiencing the consequences of climate change, but petrol prices are being subsidized to stem the tide of crisis.
There was a time when successive climatic disturbances were given a name and thought to be temporary, El Niño, La Niña ... but today, faced with the onslaught of extreme temperatures and other floods, only one word comes to mind: "disaster".
Our market is also suffering from the current situation : the long-heralded recession is on our doorstep, with its corollary of a drop in consumption, while market prices are rising steadily to reach new heights. Even if a sharp contraction in demand materializes, it is accompanied by a sharp decrease in available supply.
The USDA has already sharply reduced US production projections following the drought in the United States, but also that of Pakistan, which is expected to decrease further following the ongoing floods. There remains the question of the Chinese and Indian harvests and the impact of the very hot weather that has been experienced there for several weeks.
Given the weakness of the carryover stock and the poor harvests to come, the market should have reached much higher levels without the current poor economic outlook.
The maritime crisis, not to mention the disorder in the ports, is dragging on while the financial situation of the shipping companies is more than flourishing, even indecent, with no improvement for customers in sight.
The Euro continues to lose ground against the US Dollar, settling permanently below parity. The FED is maintaining its hardline stance of raising interest rates and tightening credit, thus putting the ECB in difficulty. The gap between US and European interest rates continues to widen, along with the risk of a deep recession in Europe.
Cotton prices should stabilize around 115 USC/Lb. on a December 2022 basis against the backdrop of a recession and slowing demand. However, particular attention should be paid to the fine qualities that should be quickly missed.
Source: Mambo