2021 is entering its final stretch, but it is difficult to draw up a balance sheet as the contradictory signs are clashing against the background of the fifth wave of COVID 19. All countries seem likely to be affected once again. Even if the number of serious cases seems likely to be lower than in previous waves.
But far from slowing down the economy, we are witnessing an overheating phenomenon. Full employment is being recalled in many countries that had forgotten it existed. Household morale is recovering and the consumption of manufactured goods is continuing despite rising inflation, particularly in the United States.
However, it is difficult to describe the current situation in the developed countries: is it a lasting trend or a flash in the pan? One thing is certain, the money saved during the confinement is coming back into the economic circuit.
Our market is no exception to this rule. Textile mills are running at full capacity, yarn prices are rising allowing mills to continue to buy raw cotton while maintaining a significant level of profitability.
- The Chinese reserve continues to sell cotton every day and should quickly reach, if not exceed, 1.5 million tons sold to manufacturers. It remains to be seen when the reserve will replenish its stocks and with which cottons?
- The Indian, Pakistani and Bengali factories are also running at full capacity allowing local production to be massively used.
- Turkey is turning more and more to imported cottons, be they Greek or American. The rebound is so powerful that inflation is now a concern, suggesting an inevitable rise in rates. While this will be beneficial for the repayment of public debts, it raises fears of higher commodity prices and the social tensions that may ensue.
In this context, we can understand the pressure exerted by the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) to limit excessively restrictive measures within the framework of COP 26. Vision, unfortunately extremely narrowed and focusing only in the very short term.
The US dollar as well as oil prices are rising steadily. As for fertilizers, prices are reaching record highs, urea having now exceeded 1,000 US Dollars per ton. Agricultural commodity prices will have to continue to rise for farmers to be able to afford to fertilize their crops.
In such an environment, freight cannot be reorganized as trade and volume are increasing.
Last week's confoundingly neutral WASDE was completely ignored by all market participants.
It is hard to believe that this situation can last indefinitely and as many anticipate, the harder the fall will be. But in the meantime, let's be a “Cicada and dance now”.
Source: Mambo