What a thundering start to the year! On the basis of this first week, 2022 will be quickly forgotten!
- - Rain of bombs in Ukraine where massacres multiply and calls for a ceasefire are not heard.
- - Attack of all democratic symbols in Brazil
- - Unimaginable difficulties for the election of the speaker of the House of Representatives by his Republican peers
- - The number of infections and deaths in China since the end of the "zero COVID" policy is reaching alarming proportions and raises fears of a new mutation of the virus.
- - Climate change is in full swing, with polar cold in some places and torrential rains in others, while everywhere else temperatures are abnormally high.
The irony is that this last dysfunction may have protected the West from a major financial crisis. Indeed, the cold snap that hit America did not prevent oil production, while in Europe the mild winter limited the need for oil and gas. Prices are back to reasonable levels, not to say low.
All the markets are today disturbed by the geopolitical situation and its repercussions on the economy, yet the outlook remains encouraging on this side:
- - Inflation seems to be under control for the time being
- - The increase in key rates is less on the agenda
- - The end of the Zero COVID policy in China should lead to a revival of consumption, even though growth is limited for the moment
- - Full employment confirmed in the US
- - After depreciating, the dollar is stabilizing at 1.06 against the euro
In this climate, the cotton market is still looking for a direction while being stuck between 80 and 90 USC/Lb on the ICE in New York. The physical market continues to search for direction in the face of conflicting data.
- - The climate between China and Australia seems to be easing, especially on the back of coal sales, as Australia has opened up to other markets at more attractive prices. Discussions could resume on cotton exports, bearing in mind that China has historically been the leading market for Australian cotton.
- - India has just lifted its import duties on a quota of 51,000 tons of Australian cotton, and many are calling for all taxes to be lifted for all origins given the difficulties in supplying local spinning mills.
- - In Bangladesh and Vietnam, new business is beginning to emerge after months of dearth.
- - In Pakistan, despite a small harvest, the spinning mills cannot come to market because of a lack of purchasing capacity in US dollars.
The uncertainty is too great to venture to predict a general improvement in our market, so we will have to be content with noting that it is holding up well and monitoring geopolitical developments in the weeks to come.
Source: Mambo