The current crisis marks a new stage in deterrence. Until now, all countries with nuclear weapons never spoke of them and above all never mentioned the possibility of their use, which, it was thought, would plunge humanity into oblivion.
Today, perhaps thanks to technological advances, everyone threatens its probable use or not, without anyone being bothered.
It is the same for the recession, all the economies are dreading it, waiting for it like we wait for a hurricane by positioning sandbags to try to avoid the tidal wave without the economic hell being in sight yet.
All financial markets are experiencing a significant decline in both equity and commodity markets. Even the oil market did not overreact to OPEC's announcement to reduce its production by 2 million barrels/day while drastic energy saving measures are being implemented. After the first oil crisis, "we don't have oil but we have ideas". Today we have even less oil but more renewable energies and ideas for new inexhaustible and "clean" fuels like hydrogen.
The prices of raw materials are gradually falling while wage increases are being negotiated. At the same time, the sharp rise in interest rates is creating the risk of a major real estate crisis. There is now little room for manoeuvre if we hope for a delay in rate hikes.
Cotton, like other markets, continues its downward correction against the backdrop of a generalized recession. It must be said that the USDA is not helping to give a trend by continuing its policy of delayed predictions. Last week's October report was no exception, as production and consumption cuts were below expectations and likely below reality.
However, US cotton sales and exports are beginning to pick up against a backdrop of contract fixing.
It is reasonable to consider that the ICE is now healthy with positions largely "balanced" between the various players.
The foreign exchange market has seen a new surge in the dollar following the poor inflation figures in the United States, suggesting a new massive intervention by the FED.
The physical market remains in a state of uncertainty with stable, if not firm, fundamentals and anaemic demand. We can note the announcement of the Chinese import quotas set at the minimum under the WTO agreements, i.e. 894,000 tons.
The coming weeks are likely to be calm unless the geopolitical situation deteriorates.
Source: Mambo