At the end of the war, what will be left of Ukraine and of Russia's dream of power? Not much to be sure. The renewed violence on the ground is the result of a new proxy war. The US is waging war on Russia through Ukraine, thinking that if a new Cold War is avoided it can focus on China, which remains a major concern. For its part, Iran is leading a counter-offensive against the West, which is banning it from the nations, by delivering, in numbers, to the Russian forces what they lacked: unsophisticated but formidably effective Chaib drones.
This week has seen Xi Jin Ping re-elected for a third term, the end of Liz Truss' meteoric rise, and the spectacular rebound of Jair Bolsonaro, who can now hope to be re-elected as Brazil's leader. But what never ceases to amaze is the next election in the United States, known as the "Mid Terms", which if it sees the announced victory of the Republicans could allow an inflexion of the American position in particular in Ukraine and in economic matters.
Each day brings its own stream of destabilization: war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, tension in the Gulf with the American reaction to OPEC's decision to reduce its oil production by 2 million barrels/day to allow prices to reach new heights and finally the fear that an invasion of Taiwan will complete this sad picture.
Where is the world going?
Like many commodities, cotton is collapsing against a backdrop of slumping demand. But how can the market recover when demand from textile distributors is at its lowest? The fear is that stocks will be built up and become unsold as the recession is likely to be devastating for household living standards. For manufacturers, the data are frightening; electricity costs and the rising dollar threaten the entire economy. The multiplication of production capacity and rising prices pose a major risk of default and cascading bankruptcies on already weakened economies.
However, the fundamental data for cotton may appear encouraging outside the geopolitical context. Especially since there is a strong chance that the next season will see a reduction in the area dedicated to the white gold. Given the price of other agricultural raw materials, cotton remains one of the worst economic choices for the next harvest.
It is clear that production costs will remain high, even though input prices are expected to correct in the coming weeks.
It is difficult to say what will happen, as the current situation is so tense and the indicators are in the red. It is therefore risky to be optimistic for cotton and for the state of the world.
Source: Mambo