Late-season rain cut into cotton harvest across west Texas and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. It was another chapter in a year where too much early and mid-season rain inhibited growth, and drought and long runs of 100-degree days parched peak season production.
In the first 20 days of November, fields near Lubbock received 4” of rain or more. Normal November rainfall is less than 1”, says Ken Lege, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension cotton specialist. About 30% or more of the region’s cotton remained in the field following the rain.
Prior to the rain, harvest had been ahead of schedule, thanks to a mild September and October. Overall, the precipitation was welcomed, but it came about three months too late.
Shawn Wade, director of policy and research for Plains Cotton Growers, Inc., says the continued drought and hot temperatures were too much for many dryland acres to overcome. On Nov. 1, USDA estimated Texas farmers “had abandoned about 19.5% of the 5.8 million acres planted,” he says. “About 25% to 30% of dryland acres were failed. When final counts are made, the dryland acres failed may top 50% statewide.”
Number of Cotton Bales Produced by State
Nationally, cotton production is forecast at 14.2 million bales, up 18% from 2023.
After fields sweltered under days and weeks in the 100-degree-plus temperatures of July and August, Lege says west Texas yields were below average. The wet November could cause color deterioration and lower leaf grade. However, no major micronaire issues are expected.
“The added heat units received in September and October added to the micronaire,” Lege says. “We’re not dealing with low mike for a change. But the summer heat and long dry spell lowered production. Fiber length was reduced. And we’re finding fewer numbers of seeds per locule.
“We normally see 8 to 10 seeds per loc, but we’re finding bolls with 5 to 7 seeds per loc,” he says. “When viewing fields from the turn row, bolls look normal.But by taking a closer look, bolls are smaller. A field might appear as a 2-bale crop, but actually be 1.3 to 1.4 bales.”
Cotton Yields by State
Pounds Per Acre
Limited Irrigation
Groundwater availability has been shrinking for decades across the southern High Plains, where annual rainfall rarely tops 20” and is often closer to 10”. Irrigated fields in the Lubbock and Amarillo areas depend on limited watering. Growers often devote water to only a half, or even one-third of a center pivot system. That was not enough to withstand the summer heat and blast furnace west Texas wind.
Many wells nearly dried out by peak bloom or sooner. Irrigated fields that normally yield 2 bales per acre, hit 1 to 1.5 bales.
Of the 500,000 acres of cotton planted in the Texas Panhandle, Jourdan Bell, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension agronomist in Amarillo, says it’s about a 50-50 split between dryland and irrigated production.
“Producers are seeing good yields in the northern counties where there was more rain,” she says, noting the Panhandle harvest was also roughly two-thirds completed by about Nov. 20. “Irrigated yields top 3 to 4 bales in many fields. Some dryland fields yielded 1.5 bales where producers received timely rain.”
However, many dryland fields yielded 1 bale at the most, she adds, and the western Panhandle saw a reduction in irrigated and dryland acres. “The majority of the failed acres were dryland,” Bell says. “Late hail also impacted cotton in the western Panhandle.”
Although the late-fall rains kept strippers and pickers parked, growers welcomed the showers to boost their winter wheat chances.
“The rains were a game changer for wheat,” Bell says. “The 3” to 8” of rain will impact the value of forage and wheat grazing, haying or ensiling.
“Panhandle producers manage risk by planting multiple commodities. Prices are low for cotton, grain and other commodities across the board. But we see high cattle prices. Producers are watching the livestock markets and see the value of grazing wheat and better forage production on rangeland.
“Hopefully, having a good wheat crop and greener rangeland will help compensate for reduced profit potential for this year’s cotton crop.”
The Texas Coastal Bend also had production issues, ranging from dodging tropical storms to extended dry periods.
“Yields averaged about 900 lb. per acre across the region,” says Justin Chopelas, a farmer and crop consultant near Corpus Christi. “Yields varied from a half-bale to 3 bales. On the dry west side of (the mid summer’s) Hurricane Beryl path, production was lower. The eastern side of the storm received more rain and had better yields.”
Chopelas says his farm was in the dry region and yielded only 400 lb. from only 1.5” of rain, “while one grower had 3.3 bales. It just depended on where you were.”
4-Bale Dryland
That’s a rarity in a good Texas cotton year, but more than exceptional for 2024. After a wet spring and early summer that had many fields in standing water for days and weeks, much of the Texas Blacklands saw weather cooperate at harvest.
“Yields turned out much better than expected,” boasts Mark Nemec, a crop consultant in Waco.
“Yields ranged from 2 to 4 bales. The stuff under water longer made 2 bales. And some dryland fields on drier ground made 3.5 to 4 bales. The better yields were in the Brazos Bottom and around Taylor and Navasota.”
With cotton prices at sub-70¢ per pound, some wonder if even 4 bales per acre will turn a profit. With cratered crop prices, Nemec believes farmers are still pondering their rotations for 2025.
“Corn and sorghum faced the same situations as cotton, he says. “Fields that stood in the water longer made lower yields. We’ll still see many cotton acres. But with the (futures trading) board at 66¢, we need price rallies and to quit giving the stuff away.”
Chopelas says with planting set to begin in early February, growers aren’t sure if they’ll add more corn or sorghum acres.
“It’s hard for us to get away from cotton,” he says. “It’s more flexible than corn or sorghum. Plus, growers have invested in cotton production equipment. That guarantees we’ll have cotton.”
Seed Availability?
Lege is concerned with drought-stressed fields yielding fewer seeds per boll, planting seed availability may be tight for 2025.
“About 50% of the regional planting seed is produced in this (Lubbock) region,” Lege says. “But we’re not getting as many seeds per acre from harvest. Many are concerned with there being enough quality seed. The weight of the seed may not be as high as it has been.”
However, Lege notes that 2024 Extension variety trials show strong yield potential from commercial varieties available from all seed companies.
“Regardless of their trait package, there are good choices from all companies,” he says. “Growers are not having to face a yield hit if they are forced to switch technologies.”
Georgia Loses Nearly 700,000 Bales to Hurricane Helene
About 30% of Georgia’s cotton crop was lost when Hurricane Helene churned through much of the Southeast in late September, according to University of Georgia Extension and the Georgia Cotton Commission.
Before the storm, USDA had projected Georgia would produce approximately 2.1 million bales. After surveying the storm damage, “we lost nearly 700,000 bales,” says Taylor Stills, Georgia Cotton Commission executive director.
Stills says peanut production also suffered from wet fields, as well as pockets of corn. Georgia and other cotton state producer associations are hopeful the lame duck Congress will pass a new farm bill, or at least vote to extend the 2018 farm bill to provide more disaster relief to farmers.
“Mother Nature hit us both (the Southeast and Southwest) in different ways,” he says. “When producers go to the bank in February, they don’t know what to tell the banker, and the banker doesn’t know what to tell them. “We’re not making enough cotton and the (66¢ per pound) market is not high enough. Our economic disaster is just as devastating as the natural disasters. We need more help.”