Ganatra listed many factors supporting the projections of CAI.
Atul Ganatra, president, CAI said, “The USDA has estimated that India’s 2018-19 cotton production would be 345.25 lakh bales, against CAI’s latest estimate of 321 lakh bales of 170 kg each.”
Ganatra listed many factors supporting the projections of CAI. “Important indicators like decline in exports by about 40 per cent, imports set to go up by 80 per cent to 100 per cent, increase in domestic prices and fall in arrivals, point that the country cannot have a huge carry forward stock of 54 lakh bales as claimed by the USDA.
CAI has projected a carry forward stock of 13 lakh bales. We have written to them about it and they have agreed to make necessary corrections in their next round of estimates.” In its latest estimate, CAI has reduced the cotton crop production estimate for 2018-19 at 321lakh bales of 170 kg each which is lower by 7 lakh bales than its previous estimate of 328 lakh bales made during last month.
CAI, in its first estimate issued in October 2018, had projected the 2018-19 production at 348 lakh bales. The current estimate is lower than its first estimate by 7.7 per cent. “We had to reduce the production estimates as the arrivals in the market has been dwindling fast due to the impact of drought,” said Ganatra. Some trade sources claimed that a large number of global traders are in short position and high cotton prices in India may affect their interests. Price of 30 mm cotton in the domestic market was ?48,200 per candy on April 30 as against ?42,000 per candy on the same day of the previous year.