Cotton is the best bet among soft commodities for 2018, with the prospect of a “more bullish price trend”, and sugar the worst - although even here there is scope for price gains, Rabobank said.
The bank, in its annual briefing on year-ahead agricultural commodity values, rated cotton as having the third best price outlook in the complex, behind corn and lean hogs, as reported elsewhere on Agrimoney.
The bank forecast New York futures prices averaging 65 cents a pound in the current, October-to-December quarter, on a spot contract basis, “under pressure” from “heavy” inventories, with stocks outside China, whose supplies are not available to the world market, forecast rising by 10m bales over 2017-18.
However, futures prices will recover to average 72 cents a pound in the last quarter of next year, as weakened farmer profitability cuts sowings in 2018-19 in major producing countries including the US, where area was forecast dropping by 1.2m acres.
‘More bullish price trend’
“A more bullish price trend is expected to emerge in late 2018, driven by strong global consumption and stock erosion,” Rabobank said.
World inventories, including China’s, will drop by 10m bales to some 79m bales in 2018-19, which starts in August next year.
The forecast factored in a an expectation of a 4.3% drop in global sowings, and a 2% rise in demand, led by South East Asia, which includes the growing Vietnamese textiles industry.
Prices will also be supported by the prospect of the ending in 2019-20 of China’s destocking drive, likely to herald a upswell in import demand.
Πηγή: Agrimoney