Executive Summary
The June 2023 edition of Cotton This Month:
- Acknowledges that the industry is in a quiet period, with little movement in estimates for supply and consumption
- Predicts that the quiet period is likely to continue for the next month or two at most, since farmers need to make decisions on what to grow
- Takes a look at the history and development of the cotton industry in Lubbock, Texas
Cotton's Slow Period Continues ... But Planting Decisions Are Coming Soon
There has been little movement in the global cotton market recently, with projections for production coming in at 24.51 million tonnes and consumption expectations remaining unchanged from last month at 23.79 million tonnes. It would seem that the lull will likely continue for another month or two at most, because that's when farmers need to decide what they're going to plant for the year.
Even trade — while considerably lower than it was at this point last year — remains largely unchanged since we reported on it in May. It is true that trade data lags real time by several months due to the need to compile and assess the global numbers, but there are few indications that there will be significant changes to trade before the season ends on 31 July 2023.
This month's CTM also takes a long look at the history of cotton in West Texas, the heart of the US cotton industry. The same approach was taken with India in the April 2023 CTM; it is our step-by-step approach to building national cotton industry profiles that will be incorporated in the ICAC Data Dashboard in coming months, giving users detailed information on the major cotton producing and consuming countries.
For the most up-to-date statistics, please refer to the Data Dashboard. It is updated with new data constantly and that new information is immediately reflected in the Dashboard, making it a valuable, up-to-date resource all month long.
Price Projections
The Secretariat’s current price forecast of the season-average A index for 2022/23 ranges from 96.36 cents to 106.47 cents, with a midpoint of 100.78 cents per pound.