Washington, DC — With global production in 2023/24 projected to increase by 3% (to 25.41 million tonnes) and consumption projected to decrease by 0.43% (to 23.35 million tonnes), global stocks are poised to jump by 10% — after a 9% increase in 2022/23 — to 23.32 million tonnes. This level of global reserves is the highest ever projected in the 83-year history of ICAC data collection on cotton.
China's stocks in 2023/24 are expected to jump to 9.16 million tonnes, while the rest of the world's warehouses are expected to swell to 14.5 million tonnes. With this amount in reserve, it is expected that the Cotlook A-Index will remain between 85 and 95 cents per pound for the remainder of the 2023/24 season.
The global stock-to-use ratio is expected to increase to 1.00 (approximately 12 months of mill use) and the global average yield in 2023/24 is currently expected to remain stable at 771 kg per hectare.
Given average cotton prices and weakening demand, slight decreases in planted area would be expected, but total planted area is projected to be 32.2 million hectares — a perplexing 2% increase over the previous season.
Price Projections
The Secretariat’s current price forecast of the season-average A index for 2023/24 ranges from 72.33 cents to 104.12 cents, with a midpoint of 86.23 cents per pound.