A few months ago, the ICAC warned that people needed to buckle themselves in for what was shaping up to be a bumpy ride in the 2022/23 season – but even we didn’t expect this situation. Due to catastrophic flooding, Pakistan is expected to see its production decline by 21% from last season. And that number could grow as reports of the damage come in.
Meanwhile, US growers faced the opposite type of adverse weather, drought, and it has completely erased the West Texas crop. The effects of Hurricane Ian also have caused damage to the crop in Georgia, the second-largest cotton producing state in the country.
Even if production were unaffected by these disasters, the uncertainty about the strength of the global economy has prompted investors to anticipate a decline in consumption. A decrease in production would normally be expected to drive prices higher, but when combined with bearish macroeconomic concerns, the expectation is difficult-to-predict volatility.
With all of this grim news, we want to end on a positive note: revitalised production in West Africa. If the projected numbers come to fruition, the region will achieve its highest production ever. If nothing else, it could serve as the one bright star in what is shaping up to be a dark 2022/23 season.
Price Projections[1]
The Secretariat’s current price forecast of the season-average A index for 2022/23 ranges from xx cents to xxx cents, with a midpoint at xxx.xx cents per pound.
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[1] The price projection for 2022/23 is based on the ending stocks-to-mill use ratio in the world-less-China in 2020/21 (estimate), in 2021/22 (estimate) and in 2022/23 (projection), on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2021/22 (estimate) and 2022/23 (projection), and the average price in 2021/22. The projection reflects a 95% confidence interval. -