INDIA: CAI revises cotton output upwards to 354.50 lakh bales for 2019-20

MUMBAI: The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has upgraded its cotton production forecast by 19 lakh bales to 354.50 lakh bales for the 2019-20 season in its July estimate on the back of higher fibre production in the central zone. The total cotton production for the year 2018-19 (October-September) stood at 312 lakh bales, the CAI said in a statement on Monday.

Compared to its June estimate, the CAI increased its production estimate for the north zone by 3 lakh bales (1 lakh bales each in Haryana, upper Rajasthan and lower Rajasthan), central zone by 13 lakh bales (7.50 lakh bales in Gujarat, 4.50 lakh bales in Maharashtra and 1 lakh bales in Madhya Pradesh), Southern zone by 3.25 lakh bales (1 lakh bales in Andhra Pradesh and 2.25 lakh bales in Karnataka), the statement said.

However, Odisha crop production is expected to be lower by 25,000 bales compared to the previous estimate.

"This increase in the production estimate is on account of increased pressing of cotton bales, which happened due to the aggressive cotton buying by the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) under MSP post lockdown that prompted farmers to bring their produce to the market instead of carrying forward the same to the next year," CAI added.

Meanwhile, the total cotton supply estimated by the CAI during October 2019 to July 2020 is 392.40 lakh bales, which consists of the arrival of 345.40 lakh bales, imports of 15 lakh bales up to July 31 and the opening stock estimated at 32 lakh bales at the beginning of the season on October 1, 2019.

Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption during the months of October 2019 to July 2020 at 206 lakh bales while the export shipments of cotton is estimated at 43 lakh bales up to July 31.

Stock at the end of July 2020 is estimated at 143.40 lakh bales, including 15 lakh bales with textile mills and the remaining 128.40 lakh bales with CCI or Maharashtra Federation and others (MNCs, MCX NSE 1.83 %, traders, ginners among others).

The Crop Committee of the CAI has estimated total cotton supply till end of the season, up to September 30, at 402.50 lakh bales.

Total cotton supply estimated now comprises the opening stock of 32 lakh bales, likely crop production of 354.50 lakh bales and estimated imports of 16 lakh bales.

The imports estimated for the 2019-20 crop year are just half of the previous year's import estimate of 32 lakh bales.

Domestic consumption is estimated decline by 30 lakh bales to 250 lakh bales up to September 30 due to the lower demand of cotton on account of disruptions caused by Covid-19 pandemic and the shortage of labour after that.

The CAI has estimated export for the season at 50 lakh bales, which is higher by 8 lakh bales than that estimated for the previous season, due to the favourable conditions now existing for export of cotton from India.

The carry-over stock at the end of the season is estimated now at 102.50 lakh bales, CAI added.